Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 77423.602127 81753.607835 86085.122863 90740.204346 95598.390190 100515.884276 105866.552256
2026-02-01 69700.242477 76248.334349 82983.651936 90419.962004 98390.509946 106667.793054 115903.918534
2026-02-08 64798.986501 72896.789971 81410.370170 91009.134840 101510.665795 112631.052291 125277.285566
2026-02-15 60570.122410 69775.666983 79634.329090 90946.382331 103534.750379 117080.551177 132725.476772
2026-02-22 57981.723690 68175.490591 79267.157611 92185.865503 106770.786097 122678.122174 141289.816151
2026-03-01 55544.501483 66536.260694 78669.323020 92992.458980 109372.511001 127453.112413 148850.761583
2026-03-08 52887.513909 64471.863358 77432.446590 92925.549443 110856.180536 130868.044216 154800.744627
2026-03-15 50763.778261 62895.324552 76638.146115 93256.799033 112700.946520 134621.033226 161085.770766
2026-03-22 49548.920587 62301.823108 76912.351161 94764.768640 115857.710683 139850.680740 169063.488067
2026-03-29 48222.161902 61498.080067 76872.942726 95846.219893 118472.464614 144428.508387 176283.468853
2026-04-05 46818.417946 60530.911622 76577.622139 96569.125101 120622.062233 148438.235907 182834.294425
2026-04-12 45160.898137 59183.375649 75762.170086 96610.162549 121912.020723 151403.241635 188138.218323
2026-04-19 43647.941577 57975.124837 75087.437245 96805.404914 123388.696946 154612.772951 193784.823516
2026-04-26 42067.052280 56626.237795 74191.739620 96688.162989 124455.696077 157317.093610 198831.154948
2026-05-03 40975.105788 55849.093446 73963.803503 97360.030438 126462.644662 161143.806261 205237.946487
2026-05-10 39603.297304 54665.253597 73183.655154 97304.840636 127542.789003 163827.309067 210254.612027
2026-05-17 38952.449102 54380.121698 73510.011445 98616.919214 130308.390410 168571.321769 217806.460209
2026-05-24 38132.144037 53842.745419 73489.481241 99469.606760 132488.458475 172596.868672 224494.107712
2026-05-31 36945.497705 52785.251384 72768.254322 99399.049911 133483.739411 175145.346134 229359.190112
2026-06-07 36003.186747 52019.574551 72394.879732 99749.007862 134992.796990 178324.381248 235012.781696
2026-06-14 35638.527106 52009.334398 72990.467845 101341.864323 138085.174268 183493.885008 243178.281240
2026-06-21 35105.749938 51752.309044 73247.256277 102484.032409 140598.417743 187945.501218 250469.466155
2026-06-28 34443.925782 51297.722896 73225.202030 103247.451410 142617.269914 191777.057662 256998.360585